Scott GabrielThis post is a continuation of my previous post on public high schools in Lancaster County. My goal here is to get a more comprehensive understanding of local high schools’ graduation rate trends. In the last post, I singled out Columbia High School as an especially poor performing local high school. Was its 2016 graduation rate of about 73% a one-off type of event or does the school consistently perform worse than its local peers? To find the answer I went back to the PA Department of Education’s Cohort Graduation Rate tables and retrieved annual data from 2012 to 2016. The trending data by school is displayed in the following chart. (Tip – click on a school name in the legend to highlight its trend in the chart.)
You’ll notice immediately that most of the schools are bunched together and consistently have graduation rates in the 90% to 95% range. However, there are three noticeable exceptions–McCaskey Campus, Columbia HS, and Phoenix Academy. Of the three exceptions, McCaskey has seen steady improvement in its graduation rate (improving to close to 90% in 2015 and 2016) and Phoenix Academy–as noted in my previous post–is an alternative high school focusing on refugees and older students, making it difficult to make direct comparisons to ‘traditional’ high schools. Columbia HS still stands out as a particularly poor performing local high school. Its graduation rate has been below 80% every year since 2012 and its overall trend has been negative over the time period.
Most Improved Local High Schools
From looking at the above line chart we can see that some schools, such as McCaskey, are improving while others, such as Columbia, appear to be getting worse. It’s reasonable to ask which schools are improving the most and which are falling further behind. One way to measure this is to look at the average annual percent change in graduation rates. The bar chart below sorts the schools from the best average annual percent change at the top to the the worst at the bottom.
At at 12.8% average annual growth in its graduation rate, Phoenix academy is the most improved school. However, it improved from a pitiful 41.6% grad rate in 2012, and its 5-year average grad rate is a meager 56% (see next chart), far below the other schools in the sample. Of the traditional high schools, McCaskey Campus has seen the most improvement in graduating its seniors. Its average annual improvement is a solid 3.5%. At the other end is Columbia HS, which has had a 1.9% average annual decline in its graduation rate since 2012.
The next chart shows breaks down each high school’s graduation rate by year and their 5-year average graduation rate. Penn Manor HS has consistently graduated over 96% of its students, which leaves little room for improvement and means it is the highest overall performer in the sample. Scroll to the bottom of the chart to see the lowest overall performers.
Total Graduates and Growth
Another important factor in gauging the health of local high schools is the total number of students they are graduating and whether that number is growing. The next chart breaks down the total number of graduating seniors for each school by year.
The chart shows that the total number of graduating seniors in Lancaster County public schools declined each year between 2012 and 2015, but then saw a slight increase in 2016. While La Academia Partners Charter School has an impressive average graduation rate (see above charts) it has, on average, graduated fewer than 30 students per year. The largest high school in the sample fluctuates between Hempfield and McCaskey each year.
The final chart shows which schools are growing and which are shrinking. Seven schools have been growing since 2013 while the majority have been losing students. La Academia and Phoenix Academy have been growing the fastest (albeit from relatively small totals). At 2.2% average annual growth in graduating seniors, McCaskey Campus has seen steady improvements. Manheim Central stands out for losing students at the fastest rate of all public schools in the county.
Conclusion – McCaskey Campus is Improving while Columbia High School is Declining
The take-aways from this analysis are as follows:
- Over the last 5 years, McCaskey Campus has improved its graduation rate to a comparable level to other public high schools in Lancaster County.
- McCaskey has also seen steady growth in the number of students it is graduating each year.
- Columbia High School consistently under performs compared to its peer high schools in Lancaster County
- Additionally, Columbia High School is losing students at the third highest rate of all public schools in Lancaster County
- Outside of La Academia Partners Charter School and Phoenix Academy, all other public high school are maintaining a graduation rate of around 90% or higher, with Penn Manor consistently being the top performing high school.
- Manheim Central High School is losing students at the fastest rate of all Lancaster County Public High Schools